Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2] - The June non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [2] - The labor participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have shifted, with a 93% probability of no change in rates, while a rate cut is anticipated to begin in September, with two cuts expected by year-end [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is influenced by the need to address inflation uncertainties caused by tariffs, which are expected to diminish, allowing for potential rate cuts [3] - The recent decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields may have been excessive, and upcoming debt supply and inflationary pressures could lead to higher rates, presenting reallocation opportunities in both the bond and equity markets [3]
中金:美国6月非农超预期 预计9月开始降息
智通财经网·2025-07-03 22:42