How Palantir Stock Soared 80% in the First Half of 2025 to Become the Best S&P 500 Stock -- and Why the Next Big Move Could Come in August

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies is experiencing significant stock performance driven by strong demand for its AI-powered data analytics platforms, with an 80.3% increase in stock value in the first half of 2025, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 index [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Palantir stock gained 10.7% through February 3, 2025, continuing its momentum from a remarkable 341% increase in 2024, outperforming Nvidia's 171% gain [3][4]. - Following the Q4 2024 earnings release on February 3, 2025, Palantir stock surged 24% the next day due to better-than-expected revenue and earnings guidance for 2025 [5]. - The stock experienced a 12.1% drop on May 6, 2025, after the Q1 2025 earnings report but quickly recovered, closing May with a gain [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Palantir's revenue grew 36% year over year, surpassing the 28% analysts had projected, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 75%, exceeding the 36% consensus estimate [6]. - The U.S. commercial business saw a remarkable revenue growth of 64% year over year, indicating a shift towards greater diversification from government contracts [7]. - For 2025, management guided for revenue growth of 31% year over year, which is above the 26% growth projected by Wall Street [7]. Group 3: Future Guidance - Management raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to 36% from 31% following the Q1 earnings report [10]. - For Q2 2025, management expects revenue between $934 million and $938 million, equating to approximately 38% year-over-year growth, along with adjusted income from operations growth of 58% to 60% [11]. - Wall Street is modeling Q2 revenue at $939.3 million, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth, with projected adjusted EPS of $0.14, indicating a 56% growth [12].