Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its profit forecast for Hutchison China MediTech (00013) at $360 million for 2025 and $100 million for 2026, with a target price of HKD 30, indicating a 20.5% upside from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Drug Approval and Market Potential - The recently approved indication for Savolitinib is the largest for the drug to date [2] - Approximately 10-25% of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients in the US and Europe have EGFR mutations, while the rate is as high as 30-40% in Asian patients [2] - MET amplification is a major mechanism of acquired resistance in EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients, with 15-50% of patients showing MET abnormalities after third-generation EGFR TKI treatment [2] Group 2: Clinical Trial Results - The approval is based on the SACHI Phase III study, which showed significant progression-free survival (PFS) benefits compared to platinum-based chemotherapy [3] - In the SACHI intent-to-treat population, the median PFS for the Savolitinib + Osimertinib combination was 8.2 months and 7.2 months, compared to 4.5 months and 4.2 months for the chemotherapy group, reducing the risk of disease progression by 66% and 60% respectively [3] Group 3: Ongoing Clinical Trials and Regulatory Progress - The SAFFRON Phase III clinical trial is ongoing, focusing on regulatory registration progress overseas [4] - The combination therapy received Fast Track designation from the FDA in 2023, with AstraZeneca conducting the SAFFRON trial to evaluate its effectiveness against platinum-based doublet chemotherapy in MET-overexpressing NSCLC [4] - Attention is recommended on the data readout from SAFFRON in 2026 and the overseas application status [4]
中金：维持和黄医药(00013)目标价30港元 评级“跑赢行业”