Workflow
美国6月非农数据意外强劲 离岸人民币盘中跌破7.17关口
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-04 02:19

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June, which has led to a significant decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with the dollar index rising sharply and the offshore RMB falling below the 7.17 mark against the dollar [1][2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, contrary to the anticipated rise to 4.3% [1] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished, with the probability of a rate cut in September also decreasing to around 80% [1][2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for some time, suggesting that businesses might need a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade and other policies, which implies a need for patience before considering rate cuts [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's controversial "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid, increasing long-term debt, and providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities expressed differing views on the implications of the non-farm report, with CITIC suggesting that the report indicates a weakening job market, while Huatai noted that despite the strong June data, external factors like tariffs and immigration could negatively impact job growth in the third quarter [2]