伊朗方面多次威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡 周边国家未雨绸缪另寻“出路”

Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Oil Supply - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has heightened tensions in the international petrochemical market, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to Iran's parliament voting to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for nearly 20% of global oil supply [1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct and profound threat to the world economy, as it is a major transport route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - Although the situation has somewhat eased, surrounding countries are proactively seeking alternative routes to mitigate the impact of a potential closure, but current efforts appear insufficient to offset the consequences [1] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Strategies - Saudi Arabia's key alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is the East-West pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day, connecting major oil production facilities to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf [2] - As of June, the Ras Tanura port, which is the largest oil export port in the Persian Gulf, had an average daily export volume of 5.3 million barrels [2] - The East-West pipeline could potentially expand its capacity to 7 million barrels per day, but practical testing of this maximum capacity has not yet occurred [2][3] Group 3: UAE's Preparations and Infrastructure - The UAE is focusing on the Fujairah port, which serves as the endpoint for the 1.5 million barrels per day Habshan pipeline, as a substitute for oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The current capacity of the Habshan pipeline is significantly lower than the UAE's total oil export volume of 3.5 million barrels per day [4] - The UAE has developed large underground caverns in Fujairah for oil storage, with a total capacity of 42 million barrels, and plans for further expansion [4] Group 4: Iraq's Oil Export Challenges - Iraq is exploring alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Turkey proposing a new pipeline from Basra to Ceyhan to enhance oil and gas exports [6] - The existing Northern Pipeline (ITP) has been closed since March 2023 due to disputes with the Kurdish region, complicating Iraq's ability to export oil [5][6] - The potential for reopening the ITP hinges on resolving outstanding issues between various parties, which may not be quickly achievable unless the Strait remains closed for an extended period [5] Group 5: Broader Regional Implications - Other major oil-producing countries in the Gulf region, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, currently lack alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Qatar, Kuwait, and the neutral zone jointly exported a total of 2.4 million barrels per day in June, while Iran primarily exports 1.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf [6] - The logistical constraints faced by these countries indicate that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to immediate supply shortages in the oil market, resulting in price surges [6]