美国或面临长期高通胀 黄金行情维持区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around $3,330, with the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations but failing to push gold prices lower. The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in July have slowed, which is not favorable for gold prices to break upward. The short-term outlook for gold remains within a range of fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll data showed that new job additions exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%, indicating a generally healthy labor market without signs of deterioration that would necessitate preemptive rate cuts [2]. - Federal Reserve official Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for an extended period, potentially affecting consumer psychology and requiring businesses to adapt to changing trade and policy conditions over a year or more [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices initially rebounded before declining, reaching a high of $3,365 and a low of $3,311 on the day of the non-farm data release. The daily closing price was below $3,325, suggesting that as long as the price does not break below $3,300, there is potential for an upward movement. The four-hour chart indicates a range-bound market, while the hourly chart shows a bearish trend [3].