基本面供增需弱多晶硅短期拉涨动能受限 机构：后续应关注行业减产力度

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition and promoting sustainable development, despite underlying supply-demand imbalances putting downward pressure on prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon prices have shown a strong rebound due to recent policy signals against "involution," with futures contracts experiencing significant gains [2]. - On July 2, multiple polysilicon futures contracts hit the upper limit, and on July 3, the main contract opened higher and rose over 2% during the day [2]. - The current market sentiment is driven by expectations of capacity reduction, which is anticipated to accelerate, thereby supporting price recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The polysilicon market is currently characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, leading to ongoing downward pressure on prices [3]. - Forecasts indicate that July production could reach 110,000 to 120,000 tons due to the resumption of major production facilities, which may further pressure prices [3]. - Demand is expected to decline, with silicon wafer production projected to drop to 55-56 GW and battery cell production to 57-58 GW, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4-5% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term market performance is likely to remain strong due to policy-driven sentiment, but mid-term price fluctuations are expected as the market adjusts to production reduction policies [4]. - The industry is advised to monitor the implementation of capacity reduction policies and the potential for further market sentiment development, as a return to fundamental price logic could lead to renewed price declines [4].