Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe that Pop Mart International, known for its Labubu dolls, will continue to be a leading consumer brand in China despite regulatory concerns regarding "blind box" toys [1][7]. Regulatory Environment - China's state media has called for stricter regulations on selling blind-box toys to children under eight, including age verification and parental approval for online purchases [2][3]. - The commentary on blind-box toys mirrors past regulations on video games aimed at reducing gaming addiction among minors, which significantly impacted the gaming industry [5]. Market Performance - Pop Mart's share price fell by 12.1% for the week ending June 20, marking its largest decline since late 2023, although it has since recovered to near all-time highs [4]. - The company experienced a remarkable 600% increase in share price over the past year, despite recent regulatory concerns [4]. Consumer Demographics - Pop Mart primarily targets Gen Z and millennials, which may insulate it from regulatory scrutiny aimed at younger children [7]. - The company is increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with projections indicating that its revenue from China will decrease to about 30% over the next decade [8]. Revenue and Growth - In 2024, Pop Mart derived approximately 61% of its revenue from mainland China, with significant growth in North America, where sales increased by over 550% year-on-year [9]. - HSBC Bank forecasts that Pop Mart's overseas revenue will more than double to 14 billion yuan ($1.95 billion) in 2025, accounting for over half of its projected revenue [10]. Consumer Behavior - The popularity of blind-box toys is growing among younger consumers, who seek "affordable exclusivity" through toy collections [11]. - Prices for Pop Mart's blind-boxed toys range from about 59 yuan to 5,999 yuan, with collectors often spending substantial amounts on rare models [12]. Challenges - Analysts caution that while Pop Mart's current popularity is strong, there is no guarantee that it will remain relevant in the long term [14]. - The company faces challenges such as delivery delays, scalping, and counterfeit products, which could harm its reputation [15][16]. Strategic Initiatives - To maintain brand freshness, Pop Mart is expanding its intellectual property portfolio and launching initiatives like pop-up stores, a film studio, and a theme park [17]. - However, these initiatives require significant investment and expertise beyond toy sales [18].
China slammed 'blind box' addiction — but that shouldn't faze Labubu-maker Pop Mart