中指研究院：1-5月全国商办用房新开工面积同比下降24.9%

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate market in China continues to face challenges, with declines in investment, new construction, and sales in the first five months of 2025, although the rate of decline has shown some signs of narrowing compared to 2024. Group 1: Investment and Construction Trends - Total investment in commercial properties reached 398.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - New construction area totaled 20.49 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - Sales area amounted to 28.6 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Market Performance - In the commercial property sector, investment decreased by 7.6%, new construction area fell by 25.2%, and sales area dropped by 6.0% in the first five months of 2025 [2] - For office buildings, investment declined by 16.3%, new construction area decreased by 24.1%, and sales area fell by 7.4% [3][5] - The land market for commercial properties saw a significant drop, with a 24.6% decrease in new land supply and a 17.1% decrease in transaction area across 300 cities in the first half of 2025 [6][10] Group 3: Retail and Leasing Market Dynamics - The number of new retail commercial projects opened in the first five months of 2025 was 89, with a total construction area of approximately 7 million square meters, representing a 17% decrease in area compared to the same period in 2024 [12] - The average rent for major shopping streets in key cities fell by 0.35%, while the average rent for shopping centers decreased by 0.12%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [15][18] - The rental market for office buildings remains weak, with an average rent decline of 1.06% in key cities during the first half of 2025 [20] Group 4: Market Activity and Transaction Trends - The large transaction market remained active, with 83 transactions recorded in the first five months of 2025, maintaining a similar level to the previous year [23] - The total transaction amount reached 93.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85% year-on-year, driven by several large transactions [24] - Retail commercial properties and office buildings were the most favored types in transactions, with retail transactions accounting for 60% of the total transaction amount [27] Group 5: Corporate Strategies and Performance - Leading companies are focusing on enhancing operational capabilities and stabilizing occupancy rates through innovative strategies and improved service quality [28][30] - The average occupancy rate for operational shopping centers among leading companies remained above 90%, with some companies reporting significant year-on-year growth in sales [31] - In contrast, the office rental performance of major real estate companies showed weaker growth, with occupancy rates around 80% [31] Group 6: Financing and Investment Trends - The issuance of CMBS/CMBN and REITs products remained low, with a total issuance of 38.2 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [39] - The market for consumption REITs has seen a steady increase, with nine products issued, totaling over 22 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in this financing avenue [40][42] Group 7: Future Trends and Opportunities - Community commercial projects are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing service consumption and meeting local needs, supported by government policies [43][47] - The integration of culture, tourism, and commerce is emerging as a significant direction for commercial upgrades, with various supportive policies being implemented [50][52]