供需双增格局下基本面矛盾不大 预计原木震荡调整

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The wood inventory has shifted to accumulation, with an increase in softwood inventory and port pressure higher than the same period last year, particularly in Jiangsu province [1]. Group 1: Inventory and Pricing - As of the week of June 27, softwood inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters, with port inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu rising by 21,000 cubic meters and 4,700 cubic meters respectively [1]. - The CFR price for June remains stable at $110 per cubic meter, with foreign prices expected to rise in July [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the sample inventory of softwood at Chinese ports was 3.36 million cubic meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10,000 cubic meters [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Customs data indicates a slight month-on-month increase in the import volume of wood and softwood in May, while year-on-year figures show a decrease [3]. - The average daily outflow of wood from ports has increased weekly, suggesting a marginal recovery in downstream demand [3]. - The overall supply-demand situation is characterized by a dual increase, with no significant contradictions in the fundamentals, although attention should be paid to future import conditions [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Futures - Southwest Futures notes that the main contract has shifted to September, with reduced overseas export willingness and ongoing domestic destocking leading to a primary focus on oscillation and adjustment before the first delivery [2]. - The LG2509 contract is suggested to have support around 770 and resistance near 810, indicating a range-bound trading strategy [3].