美国非农大幅超预期 后续白银上涨动力不强

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations with current spot prices lower than futures prices, indicating a potential opportunity for investors to monitor market movements closely [1][2]. Price Summary - On July 4, the spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 8897.00 yuan per kilogram, which is 22.00 yuan lower than the futures price of 8919.00 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The market prices for 1 silver (IC-Ag99.99) varied slightly across different trading platforms in Shanghai, with quotes ranging from 8897 yuan to 8913 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The Shanghai silver futures market closed at 8919.00 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.59% increase, with a daily trading volume of 385,997 contracts [2]. Market Insights - As of July 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a silver futures warehouse receipt of 1,340,792 kilograms, which is an increase of 2,133 kilograms from the previous trading day [2]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a silver futures trading volume of 60,640 contracts on July 3, an increase of 15,784 contracts from the previous day, with open interest rising by 2,016 contracts to 166,220 [2]. Analytical Perspective - According to Ningzheng Futures research, the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may lead to a new round of economic recovery in the U.S., which is bullish for silver [2]. - Despite a significant increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have weakened, suggesting a resilient U.S. economy that could support risk assets, including silver [2]. - The potential for further silver price increases appears limited, and the market may remain in a consolidation phase, warranting cautious observation [2].