戴德梁行：上半年深圳甲级写字楼供应延后 缓解空置率上行压力

Group 1: Office Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen saw a new supply of 235,000 square meters of Grade A office space, which was below market expectations, leading to a total stock of 8.605 million square meters [1] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office space in Shenzhen increased by 1.2 percentage points to 27.8% by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a slight upward pressure on vacancy rates due to delayed supply [1] - The demand for office leasing is influenced by external uncertainties and structural pressures during the transition period of new and old economic drivers, resulting in weak incremental demand [1] Group 2: Rental Trends and Market Dynamics - To attract and retain tenants amid fierce competition, property owners are lowering rents and offering more diversified services to enhance tenant experience [2] - The average rent for Grade A office space in Shenzhen decreased by 5.3% to 160.1 yuan per square meter per month by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing downward pressure on rental prices [2] - The net absorption of Grade A office space in Shenzhen reached 68,000 square meters in the first half of 2025, supported by price advantages [2] Group 3: Retail Market Insights - The retail market in Shenzhen experienced a strong supply in the first half of 2025, with 303,000 square meters of new quality shopping centers, increasing the total stock to 7.477 million square meters [2] - The average rent for premium shopping centers in Shenzhen fell by 2.4% to 761.6 yuan per square meter per month by the end of Q2 2025, while the overall vacancy rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 9.1% [2] Group 4: Transaction Trends and Investment Opportunities - In the first half of 2025, the total transaction volume for office properties in Shenzhen reached nearly 8 billion yuan, primarily driven by self-use buyers, indicating active self-use demand [3] - The market for large transactions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area showed significant fluctuations, with the average transaction price dropping to 500 million yuan, shifting demand towards lower total price assets [3] - Investors are increasingly interested in stable commercial projects with clear operational improvement potential, as well as logistics assets in the Greater Bay Area [3] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Insights - Market participants are encouraged to leverage favorable policy nodes, such as interest rate cuts and priority policies, to identify investment opportunities in clearly defined sectors [4] - The emergence of new economic infrastructure, particularly in artificial intelligence and biomedicine, is expected to attract investment, with data center investments returning to the spotlight [4] - The focus on commercial and urban infrastructure, along with opportunities arising from domestic demand growth and industrial transfer, will be critical for future investment strategies [4]