中指研究院发布2025中国商业地产发展白皮书 文旅商业等有望迎发展新机遇

Core Insights - The "2025 China Commercial Real Estate Development White Paper" indicates a continued decline in the supply of commercial office space and a significant reduction in newly opened retail projects since 2025, with a focus on community and cultural tourism commercial sectors as new growth opportunities for physical retail [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to May 2025, the total investment in commercial office space development across the country decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 24.9% [1] - The commercial land market has seen a decline, with a year-on-year drop of approximately 25% in the area of pure commercial land launched in 300 cities in the first half of 2025, and a nearly 20% decrease in transaction area [1] Group 2: Retail Sector Performance - In the first five months of 2025, 89 retail projects over 30,000 square meters were newly opened, a decrease of 9 projects compared to the same period last year [2] - As of May 2025, there were over 6,700 retail projects over 30,000 square meters in operation nationwide, covering approximately 5.9 million square meters, with major city clusters accounting for about 60% [2] Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - Average rental prices for street shops and office buildings have shown a narrowing decline, with street shop rents at 24.16 yuan per square meter per day, down 0.35% from the previous month, and office rents at 4.57 yuan per square meter per day, down 0.34% [2] - The rental decline for retail spaces has slowed compared to the second half of 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in the rental market [2] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Leading companies are focusing on optimizing existing assets through strategies such as creating benchmarks, adjusting leasing strategies, and innovating space usage to maintain stable occupancy rates [3] - The white paper suggests that retail will continue to evolve towards enhanced experiences and diversified formats, with community and cultural tourism commercial sectors poised for growth due to supportive policies and changing consumer spending patterns [3]