Core Points - The global trade focus is on the critical negotiations between the US and EU, with a deadline approaching for potential tariffs on EU goods [1][2] - If no agreement is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US could face tariffs up to 50%, while previously suspended retaliatory measures from the EU may also be activated [1] - The US-EU trade relationship is significant, accounting for 30% of global goods trade, with a projected total trade of €1.68 trillion (approximately $1.98 trillion) in 2024 [1] Trade Balance - The EU maintains a trade surplus of €198 billion in goods but faces a service trade deficit of €148 billion, resulting in an overall net surplus of approximately €50 billion [1] - The Trump administration has criticized the trade relationship as "unfair," claiming that the EU benefits at the expense of the US [1] Negotiation Dynamics - Current negotiations are cautious, with EU Commission President von der Leyen stating that a detailed agreement is unlikely within the 90-day grace period, aiming instead for a "principle agreement" [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has a more conservative outlook on reaching an agreement before the deadline, indicating a wait-and-see approach [2] - Experts believe the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement in the short term is low, with potential outcomes resembling the US-UK trade agreement, focusing on basic terms rather than extensive details [2] Future Considerations - The EU's retaliatory measures will closely follow US actions, with analysts suggesting that unless comprehensive tariffs are implemented by Trump, the EU will refrain from countermeasures [2] - Even if a broad framework agreement is reached, there may still be risks of policy reversals from the US, indicating that negotiations will remain contentious [2]
美欧关税谈判进入倒计时:特朗普50%关税威胁之下贸易战风险加剧
智通财经网·2025-07-04 12:52