How Strong is DraftKings' Path to Free Cash Flow in 2025?

Core Insights - DraftKings Inc. is shifting from a high-growth model to a disciplined, cash-generating business, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for the company [1] - The company has reaffirmed its free cash flow target of $750 million, indicating improvements in core business fundamentals such as margin expansion and promotional efficiency [1][5] - Despite short-term volatility from sports outcomes, DraftKings is leveraging strong operational capabilities to pursue long-term cash generation [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, DraftKings reported $103 million in adjusted EBITDA, a significant increase from $22.4 million in the same period last year, despite a $170 million revenue hit from unfavorable sports outcomes [2] - Management anticipates a substantial increase in EBITDA for Q2, projecting it to exceed $200 million, driven by sportsbook handle [2] - The structural sportsbook hold is expected to rise from 10.4% in Q1, contributing to improved net revenue margins in the range of 7-7.5% [3] Margin and Revenue Expectations - DraftKings expects to generate an additional $50 million in revenues and $37 million in EBITDA in 2025 through optimized promotional spending and improved margins [3] - The company forecasts an adjusted gross margin of 46% in 2025, reflecting an increase of over 300 basis points year-over-year [3] Regulatory Environment - The operating environment remains challenging due to regulatory issues, including Maryland's tax hike on sports betting and Jackpocket's exit from digital lottery operations, which together are expected to impact revenues by $30 million and EBITDA by $26 million [4] Capital Discipline - DraftKings is maintaining strong capital discipline, with an expected $100 million gap between adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, supported by low capital expenditures and controlled working capital [5] - The company has $1.1 billion in cash on its balance sheet, positioning it well to meet its 2025 free cash flow target [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - DraftKings shares have increased by 24% over the past three months, compared to the industry's growth of 40.5% [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales multiple of 5.31X, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.66X [7] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DraftKings' 2025 earnings per share has been revised upward from $1.40 to $1.46, indicating strong analyst confidence in the stock's near-term prospects [8] - Projections suggest a 239.1% rise in earnings for DraftKings in 2025, while competitors like Accel Entertainment and Boyd Gaming are expected to see declines [10]