【高端访谈】年内涨幅超50% 铂金行情是反转不是反弹，长期仍具有上涨潜力——访世界铂金投资协会亚太区总经理邓伟斌

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum prices is attributed to a structural supply shortage, marking a reversal rather than a mere rebound in the market [2][3]. Supply Dynamics - Platinum market is experiencing a significant structural shortage, with a projected shortfall of 816,000 ounces in Q1 2025, the largest quarterly deficit in six years [2]. - The annual shortfall is expected to reach 966,000 ounces, marking the third consecutive year of deficit [2]. - South Africa, which heavily relies on platinum supply, faces challenges due to high mining costs and a prolonged period of low platinum prices, limiting the willingness of mining companies to explore new mines [2][3]. Demand Trends - Global platinum demand increased by 10% year-on-year in Q1, driven by both investment and consumption [4]. - In China, platinum investment demand surged by 140% year-on-year, surpassing North America to become the largest retail investment market for platinum [5]. - The jewelry sector in China is shifting towards platinum due to high gold prices, with a projected 15% increase in platinum demand in the jewelry sector by 2025 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The ongoing consumption of above-ground platinum stocks suggests that by the end of 2025, only about three months of demand will be met, indicating a persistent shortage [3]. - The strong performance in the Chinese market during April and May is expected to contribute positively to overall demand for the year [6]. - The potential for a long-term bull market in platinum is emphasized, with investors encouraged to adopt a patient, long-term investment strategy [7].