Home Depot Stock Picks Momentum in 3 Months: Buy Now or Stay Put?

Core Insights - Home Depot Inc. (HD) stock has increased by 8.8% over the past three months, reflecting a combination of challenges and resilience in the face of elevated interest rates and tighter financing [1][2] - The company has strategically invested in technology, digital tools, and supply-chain enhancements to maintain its dominance in the home improvement market [1][12] Performance Comparison - HD's 8.8% growth slightly outperformed the Retail - Home Furnishings industry's 8.7% but lagged behind the Retail-Wholesale sector and S&P 500, which grew by 17.7% and 23%, respectively [2] - Compared to its main competitor, Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW), which rose 5.3%, HD performed better, but it fell short of peers like Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and Haverty Furniture Companies (HVT), which saw increases of 19.4% and 22.6% [3] Stock Price and Technical Indicators - As of the current price of $371.68, HD trades 15.4% below its 52-week high of $439.37 and 13.9% above its 52-week low of $326.31 [7] - The stock is above its 50-day moving average, indicating strong upward momentum, but below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting long-term weakness [7][8] Financial Performance - In Q1 fiscal 2025, HD reported sales of $39.9 billion, a 9.4% year-over-year increase, primarily due to the SRS acquisition, although comparable sales fell by 0.3% due to soft demand for large remodeling projects [9][13] - Pro sales outperformed DIY sales, with strength noted in categories such as siding, decking, and gypsum [9][13] Strategic Initiatives - HD is focusing on enhancing its Pro ecosystem, digital capabilities, and supply chain, with the SRS integration improving service for professional customers [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from long-term housing trends, including an aging housing stock and rising home equity, with an estimated $50 billion in deferred remodeling demand [15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD's fiscal 2025 earnings per share remains unchanged, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 has decreased by 0.1% [17] - For fiscal 2025, sales are expected to grow by 3.1%, but earnings per share are projected to decline by 1.3% [19] Valuation Metrics - HD is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 23.81, higher than the industry average of 21.07 and the S&P 500's average of 22.45, indicating a premium valuation [20][21] - This premium suggests high investor expectations for HD's performance, but it may not be justified if the company fails to meet long-term growth targets [23] Investment Outlook - Home Depot's fundamentals remain strong, supported by growth initiatives and robust Pro customer sales [24] - The stock's near-term upside may be limited by macroeconomic headwinds and modest earnings growth expectations, with much of the long-term optimism already reflected in the current price [25] - For existing shareholders, HD is considered a high-quality hold, while prospective investors may seek a more attractive entry point during market pullbacks [26]