人民币汇率年中成绩单：韧性持续增强

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic economic recovery and macroeconomic policies, with expectations for continued stability and potential mild appreciation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1643, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous close [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore and offshore RMB to USD exchange rates rose by 1.82% and 2.45%, respectively [1]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 298 basis points in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The decline of the US dollar index by 10.79% in the first half of the year contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - Domestic policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments provided significant support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore, and central parity rates indicates a potential convergence of these rates, suggesting a more stable exchange environment [2]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - Experts predict that the RMB may experience mild appreciation due to favorable external and internal factors [2]. - Continued domestic growth policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange market, including the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, which may further support the RMB's stability [3]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Risk Management - The maturity and rationality of market participants have improved, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising to around 30% [3]. - The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations has significantly increased, bolstering confidence in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate [3].