【财经分析】黄金上半年涨势喜人 短期波动或不改长期牛市

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices reached a historical high in Q2, with a more than 25% increase over the past six months, and spot gold was reported at $3342.80 per ounce as of July 4 [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may face pressure in the second half of 2025 due to weakening demand and increasing supply, despite ongoing support from geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar [1][3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have been accumulating gold to hedge against inflation and diversify assets, with global central bank net gold purchases exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [2] - In the first four months of 2025, central banks net purchased 256 tons of gold, maintaining high demand levels [2] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2296.37 tons as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase for seven months [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Alternatives - The rising gold prices have led jewelers to diversify into platinum, which has seen a price increase of over 30% this year, reflecting strong demand in the jewelry market, particularly in China [4][5] - Analysts suggest that even a small shift in demand from gold jewelry to platinum could significantly increase the supply gap for platinum [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The gold sector has shown strong performance, with COMEX gold futures up 26.89% year-to-date, and several Hong Kong gold and jewelry stocks have surged over 100% [7] - Investors are advised to consider a long-term holding strategy for gold, as it may provide good returns despite short-term volatility [8]