2025下半年资产配置新逻辑：固收打底 适度放开含权资产敞口

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025 due to the interplay of U.S. foreign policy, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI technology revolution, leading to increased fluctuations in A-shares and U.S. stocks, while safe-haven assets like gold strengthened [1] - In the context of the U.S.-China competition and China's economic structural transformation, financial resources and policies are shifting from traditional sectors (real estate, infrastructure) to new economies (technology manufacturing), resulting in a gradual decline in the interest rate center [1] - The bond market is expected to face challenges in the short term, with asset allocation needing to consider more asset pricing perspectives, especially following potential global capital inflows after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a loose monetary policy, which will support Chinese asset prices, although the difficulty in enhancing yields is increasing [2] - The public REITs market has rapidly developed since its establishment in 2021, surpassing a market size of 200 billion yuan by June 2025, attracting significant inflows from insurance and brokerage firms [2] - In the current low-interest-rate environment, public REITs with special asset attributes, such as policy-driven rental housing and core consumer infrastructure in first- and second-tier cities, are viewed favorably [2]