美国开心果有点不“开心”

Core Insights - The pistachio market has experienced significant fluctuations, initially gaining popularity due to a viral chocolate product but later facing challenges from trade policies and environmental factors [1][2][4][5] Market Overview - The global pistachio market is dominated by three main producers: the United States (approximately 45% market share), Iran (about 35%), and Turkey (around 10%), maintaining this structure for nearly 30 years [1] - The European Union and China are the largest importers of pistachios, with the latter emerging as a significant consumer market [1] Price Dynamics - The price of pistachios surged from $7.65 per pound to $10.30 per pound, marking an increase of approximately 35% due to heightened demand driven by the popularity of a chocolate product [2] - The U.S. pistachio market is projected to see prices rise by 30% to 50% due to new tariffs, which could severely impact market competitiveness [4] Supply and Demand - Global pistachio production is expected to rise by over 40% in 2024, reaching a record 1.1 million tons, with exports increasing by nearly 55% [3] - The demand for pistachios has led to a "stockpiling craze," disrupting the supply-demand balance in the market [2] Competitive Landscape - The U.S. pistachio industry is seeking new markets in the Middle East and India due to anticipated losses from tariff increases, but faces challenges from established suppliers and local production [4][5] - Iran and Turkey are capitalizing on the situation, with lower production costs allowing them to increase exports and compete effectively against U.S. pistachios [5] Environmental Challenges - California's prolonged drought has raised production costs for U.S. pistachios, prompting research into drought-resistant varieties and adjustments in planting strategies [5]