美股基金迎八个月最大资金流入！这位明星分析师缘何提及风险

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimistic sentiment drives technical indicators into overbought territory, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, the passage of the tax reform bill in the House, and stronger-than-expected employment data [1] - US stock funds saw the highest net inflow since November last year, with a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, following six consecutive weeks of outflows [5] - The S&P 500 index may trigger a "sell signal" if it breaks through 6,300 points in July, indicating potential bubble risks as the market is currently overbought [6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Job openings in May reached 7.769 million, surpassing the expected 7.3 million, indicating a healthy labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6%, although still above the long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has diminished, with traders assigning a 68% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 74% a week prior [4] - The latest employment data complicates the case for a quick dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, as rising effective tariff rates and stable job markets may delay rate cuts until Q4 or even December [5] - The market's resilience amid stable employment data has offset the negative impact of reduced rate cut expectations [5]