本周外盘看点丨特朗普关税谈判迎大结局？美联储将公布会议纪要

Group 1: Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is marked by significant central bank activities, with major central banks, including the Bank of England, releasing financial stability reports and engaging in monetary policy discussions [1][7] - The U.S. stock market showed positive momentum, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.48%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72% over the past week [1] - The upcoming week will see key economic indicators released, including the NFIB small business optimism index and initial jobless claims data, amidst ongoing scrutiny of U.S. Treasury auctions [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into future interest rate cuts, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% to 4.50% [3] - Market expectations for a July rate cut are low, with only a 4% probability, suggesting that any potential cuts may be delayed until October [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly related to tariffs, continues to influence the Fed's policy outlook [3] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.43% to $66.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.22% to $68.28 per barrel [6] - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by nearly 550,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may impact global oil supply dynamics [6] - Gold prices have risen by 2.05% to $3,335.24 per ounce, driven by a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to trade uncertainties [6] Group 4: UK Economic Developments - The Bank of England is set to release its Financial Stability Report, with concerns about the labor market and potential risks to the UK economy highlighted by committee members [7] - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility will publish a report focusing on fiscal risks, particularly regarding climate change and public finances [7] - Key economic data releases for the UK include GDP and industrial output figures, following a contraction of 0.3% in April [8]