“大而美”法案：走向更危险的财政悬崖

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, a significant pillar of Trump's economic policy during his second term, aims to fulfill his election promises regarding economic development and social welfare, with substantial implications for both the U.S. and other countries [1][2]. Group 1: Tax and Spending Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to reduce U.S. federal tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade (2025-2034) due to the extension or permanent establishment of several provisions from the previous "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" [2][3]. - The Act allows full tax deductions for research and development expenses and capital investments made in the U.S., reflecting a "trickle-down economics" approach aimed at economic recovery and job creation [2][3]. - The projected increase in U.S. national debt is estimated to be around $4.1 trillion to $5.5 trillion over the next decade, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 127% by 2034 [3][9]. Group 2: International Tax Policy Changes - The Act continues and expands upon the previous tax reforms, tightening foreign tax credit rules and increasing the limit on foreign tax credits under the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) provisions from 80% to 90% [4][6]. - The Act retains provisions for "retaliatory taxes" against countries imposing unfair taxes on U.S. companies, reflecting a strong stance on international tax sovereignty [5][6]. - The revisions to the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) rules indicate a more aggressive approach to taxing foreign entities, with significant implications for international tax relations [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Spending and Policy Shifts - The Act significantly cuts spending on healthcare and social security by approximately $1.2 trillion while increasing defense spending, indicating a prioritization of military and border security initiatives [9][10]. - The termination of clean energy tax credits marks a shift away from the previous administration's green policies, emphasizing traditional fossil fuel production and usage [8][9]. - The Act's overall approach to tax policy is seen as a manifestation of "tax power," necessitating vigilance from other nations regarding potential impacts on their own tax systems [8][9].