中外资机构热议下半年投资机遇：继续看好中国股市 弱美元情景下全球资产须多元灵活配置

Group 1: Market Outlook - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to the U.S. tariff war, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI technology revolution [1] - Institutions are focusing on the investment opportunities and asset allocation strategies for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Chinese Stock Market - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with potential upward movement if the fundamentals improve [9][10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and 5G, is anticipated to yield excess returns due to strong demand and innovation [9][10] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, combining high-dividend state-owned enterprises with growth-oriented technology stocks [10][11] Group 3: Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13] - The current account surplus is expected to remain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for yuan stability [12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with increased spending in key areas such as social welfare and green transformation [13] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [14][15] Group 5: U.S. Economic Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility [16] - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [17][18][19] Group 6: Global Asset Allocation - A weaker U.S. dollar may lead to a reallocation of investments towards non-dollar assets, benefiting gold, euros, and emerging market currencies [20] - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments [21][22]