粤车南下，“活水”北来，香港零售业复苏在路上｜湾区观察

Core Insights - The retail sector in Hong Kong experienced a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in total sales value in May 2025, marking the first rebound in 14 months [3] - The "Yue Che Nan Xia" (Guangdong vehicles coming to Hong Kong) initiative is expected to attract new tourist groups from mainland China, providing fresh opportunities for various industries in Hong Kong [2][3] - The successful implementation of "Port Vehicle Northbound" has laid a foundation for the upcoming "Yue Che Nan Xia" policy, which aims to enhance cross-border travel and commerce [2][3] Retail Sector Performance - The total sales value of Hong Kong's retail industry reached HKD 31 billion in May 2025, reflecting a 2.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery from previous downturns [3] - UBS and Morgan Stanley predict continued growth in retail sales for June 2025, suggesting a positive trend for the sector [3] - The local industry is optimistic about the "Yue Che Nan Xia" initiative, with many businesses proposing tailored tourism experiences to attract visitors [3] Tourism and Visitor Statistics - In May 2023, Hong Kong welcomed approximately 4.08 million visitors, a 20% increase compared to the same month last year, contributing to a total of over 20 million visitors in the first five months of the year [4][5] - The number of mainland visitors has been bolstered by the expansion of the "Individual Visit" program and the restoration of the "One Permit Multiple Entries" policy for Shenzhen residents [5] - The government is actively promoting new travel routes and increasing flight services to attract more visitors from mainland China [5] Economic Impact of Events - The "Event Economy" has become a significant driver for the recovery of Hong Kong's retail sector, with over 90 large-scale events held in the first half of the year, attracting around 840,000 visitors and generating HKD 3.3 billion in consumption [6] - The government is confident that upcoming cultural and sports events will further boost visitor numbers and economic activity in the latter half of the year [6] Future Outlook - The "Yue Che Nan Xia" initiative is anticipated to inject additional momentum into the recovery of Hong Kong's retail sector [7]