景顺投资赵耀庭：美元贬值周期或开启 资产配置迎拐点

Group 1: Global Financial Market Trends - The global financial market is undergoing significant changes, with the potential for a new depreciation cycle of the US dollar, which may decline by 5% in the second half of the year, impacting global asset allocation [1] - A weaker dollar typically opens up opportunities for non-dollar assets, particularly benefiting emerging markets by improving financing conditions and enhancing returns on local currency-denominated assets [1] - The current high valuation of the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio close to 22, contrasts with the historical average, highlighting the relative valuation advantage of non-US markets [1] Group 2: Emerging Market Dynamics - For emerging markets, particularly Asian stocks, to outperform developed markets, four key factors must align: moderate US economic growth, a depreciating dollar, stable oil prices below $80 per barrel, and accommodative monetary policies from emerging market central banks [2] - Increased interest from European investors in Asian markets and vice versa indicates a positive trend in capital flows between Europe and Asia, suggesting a shift towards seeking opportunities outside the US market [2] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - Chinese technology companies are demonstrating strong innovation capabilities, as evidenced by the launch of the DeepSeek-R1 model, which is narrowing the valuation gap between US and Chinese tech stocks [3] - Despite the strong performance of US tech stocks, there are signs of cooling enthusiasm and concerns over high valuations, while Chinese tech companies are viewed as having higher investment value due to their growth potential [3] - Investment opportunities in Chinese companies are also seen in quantum computing, biotechnology, and high-end equipment manufacturing, supported by favorable policies and a complete industrial chain from R&D to commercialization [4]