俄罗斯调整预算应对能源减收

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government has revised its 2025 federal budget to increase spending and lower revenue expectations due to a significant decline in oil and gas income, leading to an expanded fiscal deficit [1][6]. Revenue Summary - From January to May, the federal budget revenue reached 14.73 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Non-oil and gas revenue was 10.49 trillion rubles, up 12.3%, while oil and gas revenue fell to 4.24 trillion rubles, down 14.4% [2]. - The decline in oil and gas revenue is attributed to lower average oil prices and a one-time receipt of additional taxes in February 2024, which inflated the previous year's base [2][3]. Expenditure Summary - Total federal budget expenditure from January to May was 18.13 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. The cumulative budget deficit reached 3.39 trillion rubles, accounting for 1.5% of GDP [2]. Fiscal Deficit Outlook - The Russian Finance Ministry anticipates a further decline in energy income, estimating a loss of 447 billion rubles by the end of the year. The overall fiscal deficit could expand to between 6 trillion and 7 trillion rubles [3]. Energy Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in energy exports and revenues persists, with the EU considering lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, which could severely challenge Russian oil exports [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, have caused temporary fluctuations in oil prices, but these changes are not expected to have a lasting impact on Russian energy exports [5]. Budget Adjustments - The revised budget includes an increase in spending by 829 billion rubles and a reduction in expected revenue by 4.4%, with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.7% of GDP [6]. - The budget's GDP growth forecast remains at 2.5%, but inflation expectations have been raised from 4.5% to 7.6%, with adjustments made to oil price and ruble exchange rate benchmarks [6].