通胀触底遇上贸易保护主义抬头 澳央行周二或启动六年首次连续降息

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its first consecutive interest rate cut in six years, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 8 [1] - The cumulative reduction in the current easing cycle will reach 75 basis points, supported by domestic economic data indicating low consumer confidence and weak household spending [1] - The market anticipates further rate cuts later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.1%, with 3.35% seen as a critical point for pausing policy to assess the impact of previous easing measures [4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting is significant as it marks the first participation of new Treasurer Jenny Wilkinson in interest rate decisions, highlighting female leadership in Australia's core economic institutions [7] - The RBA's dovish stance aligns with recent rate cuts from central banks in Europe, Canada, and the UK, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's plans to maintain its policy until mid-2025 [7] - Market participants will closely monitor RBA Governor Michele Bullock's statements regarding future policy direction to gauge the pace and extent of the easing cycle [7]