双焦过剩格局延续，价格寻底觅结构性机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the oversupply of coking coal continues, with prices seeking a bottom while structural opportunities are being explored [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, under the "stabilize production and ensure supply" policy framework, the probability of policy-driven production cuts is low, and domestic coking coal production remains primarily market-driven [1] - Coking coal production is expected to increase by approximately 10 million tons year-on-year, with a slight decline in the second half of the year [1] - Annual imports of coking coal are projected to decrease by around 9 million tons year-on-year [1] Group 3 - On the demand side, the high iron and steel output in the first half of the year, driven by export demand, has depleted the steel demand for the second half, facing uncertainties from tariffs and crude steel reduction [1] - The space for increasing iron and steel production is limited, and the peak demand for the year may have already been reached, with overall demand expected to decline year-on-year [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand structure indicates that the coking coal market remains loose throughout the year, with coking coal continuing to seek a new balance at the marginal cost curve unless administrative production cuts are implemented [1] - Coking coal production will passively follow fluctuations in iron and steel output, maintaining a weak balance relationship [1]