煤价磨底，供需重构 | 投研报告

Supply Side - The domestic raw coal production target for 2025 is approximately 4.8 billion tons, with slight increases expected in major production areas and continued growth in Xinjiang coal output, although the growth rate may decline due to fluctuating coal prices [1][2] - In April 2025, coal production contracted by over 50 million tons month-on-month due to low coal prices, while a slight recovery was observed in May in preparation for summer energy supply [1][2] - As of May 2025, 53.61% of coal companies are operating at a loss, indicating a persistent low price environment and potential production cuts among small and medium-sized coal enterprises [2] Import Side - The expected coal import volume for 2025 is 51 million tons, which, while lower than in 2024, remains at a high level, contributing to downward pressure on prices due to sufficient domestic supply [2] - Cumulative coal imports as of May 2025 reached 18.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%, marking three consecutive months of decline [2] Demand Side - In the first five months of 2025, cumulative thermal power generation was 2,444.8 billion kWh, accounting for 65.60% of total generation, with a year-on-year decline of 2.88% due to competition from renewable energy sources [3] - Chemical coal demand has significantly increased, with high operating rates for methanol and urea, and construction material coal demand is expected to remain stable as the real estate sector stabilizes [3] - The supply of coking coal is expected to be ample, which may suppress coking coal prices, especially with seasonal declines in steel demand anticipated in July and August [3] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed as a high dividend target with long-term investment value, especially in the context of ongoing uncertainties in international relations and trade conflicts [4] - Companies recommended for attention include high-dividend, stable profit leaders like China Shenhua (601088.SH) and China Coal Energy (601898.SH), as well as companies that can mitigate price volatility like Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [5]