日本实际薪资意外创2023年9月以来最大降幅 但央行加息预期未受扰动

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline since September 2023, which poses a significant challenge for Prime Minister Kishida ahead of the upcoming elections [1][4] - The nominal wage growth was only 1%, significantly below economists' expectations, primarily due to reduced bonuses [1][4] - The largest labor union, Rengo, reported a 5.25% increase in agreed wages this year, the highest in 34 years, driven by inflation and labor shortages [1][6] Group 2 - Japan's core inflation rate reached 3.7% in May, well above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with essential goods and services driving the increase [4] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to stimulate wage growth, but recent polls indicate low public support for these initiatives [4][5] - Despite the decline in real wages, the Bank of Japan may still consider further interest rate hikes due to the ongoing nominal wage increases and inflation pressures [4][7] Group 3 - Basic wages increased by 2.1% in May, with stable indicators showing full-time employee wages rising by 2.4%, maintaining growth above 2% for nearly two years [5][6] - Structural labor shortages are pushing companies to raise wages to attract and retain talent, particularly in sectors like information technology [6] - Economic uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff policies, pose risks to wage growth momentum, especially for large manufacturers [6][7]