Core Viewpoint - The company, Jingneng Clean Energy, is currently undervalued and has established a three-year dividend return plan, with an expected average annual compound growth rate of 8.5% in dividends from 2015 to 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 38%, 40%, and 41% of net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 21.3 billion, 22 billion, and 22.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.8%, 3.0%, and 2.5% [1] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same years are forecasted to be 3.57 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 6.6%, and 6.4% [1] Group 2: Market Position - Jingneng Clean Energy is the largest gas-fired power supplier in Beijing, with gas power generation accounting for 47% of the city's total gas power generation and heating supply making up 43% of centralized heating in Beijing as of 2024 [2] - The company has a cumulative installed capacity of 17.4 GW as of the end of 2024, with wind, solar, and gas power capacities of 6.9 GW, 5.3 GW, and 4.8 GW respectively [2] Group 3: Operational Stability - The gas power generation segment has shown strong profitability stability, contributing approximately 1 billion yuan to net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The local electricity supply is primarily gas-fired, with gas power accounting for 95% of local generation in 2024, and the company’s gas power plants have maintained a stable output over the past decade [3] - The company benefits from relatively low and stable gas procurement prices, with unit gas costs increasing only slightly from 0.467 yuan/kWh to 0.487 yuan/kWh from 2020 to 2024 [3] Group 4: Renewable Energy Strategy - The company has shown a restrained approach to expanding its renewable energy assets, focusing on maintaining profitability rather than merely increasing scale [4] - From 2015 to 2024, the operating profit from wind and solar energy has grown significantly, with compound annual growth rates of 16% and 20% respectively [4] - The company has several high-quality projects in the pipeline, including a 1.5 million kW wind project expected to be operational in 2025, and additional projects in Guangdong and Beijing [4]
兴证国际：首予京能清洁能源(00579)“增持”评级 目前处于低估区间