美国关税政策对全球经济金融的影响与走向研判

Group 1: Characteristics of US Tariff Policy - The US tariff policy since 2025 has shown a broad coverage and significant expansion, imposing a 10% basic tariff on nearly all imported goods, impacting various industries including electronics, machinery, chemicals, and textiles [2][3] - The tariff rates are differentiated based on trade deficit and competitive relationships, with complex exemption processes for even "friendly" countries, indicating a strategic use of tariffs for economic and political goals [3] - The policy exhibits high uncertainty, with frequent adjustments causing confusion among global trade participants, complicating long-term business planning [3] Group 2: Impact on the US Economy - The tariff policy aims to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, but it has led to rising inflation pressures, with the Federal Reserve adjusting GDP growth forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4% for 2025 [4] - US companies, including local and foreign firms, face increased import costs disrupting supply chains, with small furniture manufacturers and farmers in the Midwest experiencing severe financial difficulties due to tariff impacts [5] - The US's international credibility is damaged due to erratic policy changes, leading to decreased confidence among global investors and trade partners, reflected in the reduced attractiveness of US Treasury bonds [6] Group 3: Global Economic and Financial Impact - The US tariff policy disrupts global trade and capital flows, raising import prices and suppressing trade activity, with the World Bank predicting a decline in global trade growth rates for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The policy negatively affects global economic growth, with rising import prices reducing consumer purchasing power and investment uncertainty leading to cautious business decisions [8] - The tariffs challenge existing international trade rules, prompting a shift towards new regional trade agreements and increasing the influence of emerging economies in global trade rule-making [8] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - China's export costs rise due to US tariffs, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports to the US reached $17.15 billion in 2024, leading to profit compression and increased logistics costs [9][10] - The demand for Chinese exports in machinery, textiles, and apparel declines as US tariffs diminish price competitiveness, with a potential 20-30% drop in textile exports anticipated with a 10% tariff increase [10] - The pressure to relocate supply chains increases as multinational companies consider moving production to regions with lower tariffs, impacting China's position in global supply chains [11] Group 5: China's Response to US Tariff Policy - China has taken a firm stance against US tariffs, implementing reciprocal measures and engaging in trade talks to maintain economic relations [13] - The country is enhancing trade ties with other economies through initiatives like the Belt and Road, reducing reliance on the US market and expanding its global trade footprint [13][14] - China is advocating for multilateral mechanisms to address US violations of trade rules, strengthening its position in global trade discussions and enhancing its economic resilience [14]