美国关税政策如何影响全球经济金融

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy since 2025 has been characterized by broad scope, significant magnitude, and high uncertainty, impacting the global economy profoundly [1] Group 1: Impact on Global Trade and Capital Flow - The U.S. tariff increases have raised import prices, suppressing global trade vitality and leading to a decline in trade volume [2] - The World Bank forecasts global trade growth rates of 1.8% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, down by 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points from earlier predictions [2] - Capital flows have become more diversified due to the turbulence caused by U.S. tariff policies, with Japan's exports to the U.S. dropping by 11.1% year-on-year in May 2025 [2] Group 2: Impact on Global Economic Growth - The U.S. tariff policy has a significant negative effect on global economic growth, with the World Bank predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2] - Rising import prices due to tariffs reduce consumer purchasing power, leading to decreased demand [2] - Trade uncertainties have made businesses more cautious in their investment decisions, resulting in many potential projects being shelved or canceled [2] Group 3: Reshaping International Trade Rules - The U.S. tariff policy challenges existing international trade rules, aiming to reconstruct a trade order favorable to itself under the "America First" principle [3] - Other economies are strengthening existing agreements or exploring new regional trade agreements to protect their interests, leading to a more multipolar development of global trade rules [3] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for China - Major challenges for China include rising costs, profit compression, loss of orders, and increased pressure for supply chain relocation [4] - Opportunities for China involve accelerated domestic substitution, innovation-driven development, expansion of the domestic market, and optimization of global market layout [4] Group 5: China's Response to U.S. Tariff Policies - China has demonstrated a firm stance and multi-faceted response strategies against U.S. tariff policies, quickly opposing unreasonable tariffs and implementing countermeasures [5] - Strengthening communication and cooperation with other economies has been a priority, with trade shares in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa increasing [6] - China has actively called for the role of multilateral mechanisms, opposing protectionism and maintaining the authority and fairness of the multilateral trade system [6] - Overall, China's efforts have significantly enhanced global confidence in addressing U.S. tariff policies and have provided a stabilizing effect on both the Chinese and global economies [6]