美联储降息预期分化 纸黄金短线回调走低

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy presents a dilemma, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in gold prices, but long-term easing expectations will support gold price trends [1][2][3] - The non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 110,000 by 33%, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished following the strong employment data, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September now at 68%, down from 74% a week prior [2] Group 2 - The impact of rate cuts on gold prices is dual-faceted; lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is favorable for gold prices, but rapid cuts could lead to inflation expectations rising, which may also support gold prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates that paper gold prices have been fluctuating within a range, with a weekly low of 751.55 and a high of 774.84, closing at 768.48, suggesting potential for further fluctuations [4] - Current resistance levels for paper gold are noted at 770-780, while support levels are identified at 750-760, indicating a cautious outlook for short-term price movements [4]