荷兰国际：通胀持续放缓为澳洲联储降息再开窗口

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming meeting due to weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data [1] Inflation and Economic Data - Australia's overall inflation rate decreased from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May, approaching the central bank's target range lower limit of 2-3% [1] - The latest monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicates a decline in voluntary resignation rates, shifting wage negotiations towards job security, which may lead to a slowdown in wage growth beyond current expectations [1] Future Rate Expectations - Given the prevailing risks of declining growth and inflation, the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been increased by 25 basis points, with an expected cash rate of 3.1% by the end of the year [1] - Global tariff uncertainties persist, but both overall and core inflation have established a downward trend, likely maintaining around the midpoint of the 2-3% range in the coming quarters [1]