Shell second quarter 2025 update note

Core Insights - The company provides an updated outlook for Q2 2025, with expectations subject to finalization of results to be published on July 31, 2025 [1] Integrated Gas - Adjusted EBITDA production is expected to be between 900 - 940 kboe/d, down from 927 kboe/d in Q1 2025 [2] - LNG liquefaction volumes are projected to be between 6.4 - 6.8 million tonnes, slightly lower than 6.6 million tonnes in Q1 2025 [2] - Underlying operating expenses (opex) are expected to remain stable at 1.0 - 1.2 billion [2] - The taxation charge is anticipated to decrease to between 0.3 - 0.6 billion from 0.8 billion in Q1 2025 [2] Upstream - Production is forecasted to decline to between 1,660 - 1,760 kboe/d, down from 1,855 kboe/d in Q1 2025, due to scheduled maintenance and the sale of SPDC in Nigeria [4] - Underlying opex is expected to range from 1.9 - 2.5 billion [4] - The taxation charge is projected to decrease to between 1.6 - 2.4 billion from 2.6 billion in Q1 2025 [4] - Joint ventures and associates are expected to contribute approximately 0.2 billion in profit/loss, with exploration well write-offs estimated at 0.2 billion [4] Marketing - Sales volumes are expected to be between 2,600 - 3,000 kb/d, down from 2,674 kb/d in Q1 2025 [5] - Underlying opex is projected to be between 2.3 - 2.7 billion [5] - The taxation charge is expected to decrease to between 0.2 - 0.6 billion from 0.4 billion in Q1 2025 [5] - Adjusted earnings are anticipated to be higher than Q1 2025 [6] Chemicals and Products - The indicative refining margin is expected to increase to $8.9/bbl from $6.2/bbl in Q1 2025 [8][14] - The indicative chemicals margin is projected to rise to $166/tonne from $126/tonne in Q1 2025, although adjusted earnings are expected to be a loss [8][14] - Refinery utilization is expected to improve to between 92% - 96% from 85% in Q1 2025, while chemicals utilization is expected to decline to between 68% - 72% due to unplanned maintenance [8] Renewables and Energy Solutions - Adjusted earnings are expected to range from (0.4) - 0.2 billion, indicating a potential loss [9] Corporate - Adjusted earnings are projected to be between (0.6) - (0.4) billion, slightly worse than (0.5) billion in Q1 2025 [10] Shell Group - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) is expected to see tax payments between 2.8 - 3.6 billion, slightly lower than 2.9 billion in Q1 2025 [11] - Working capital movements are projected to range from (1) - 4 billion, compared to (2.7) billion in Q1 2025 [11] Guidance and Consensus - The company will publish consensus managed by Vara Research on July 23, 2025 [13]