供需预期转差 预计甲醇期货难有大幅单边趋势

Market Overview - The main contract for methanol futures, MA2509, closed at 2401 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.58% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 3, methanol inventory at East China ports was 342,700 tons, down from 366,000 tons on June 26, a decrease of 23,300 tons [2] - Domestic methanol prices experienced a rebound after an overall decline, with the transaction focus decreasing month-on-month. The average price in the Taicang region was 2612 CNY/ton, down 3.47% from the previous week. In Inner Mongolia, the weekly average price was 1976 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.5% from the previous week [2] - The operating load of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) facilities in East China has been continuously declining, with several plants operating below capacity or in a shutdown state [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, increased maintenance in upstream operations and high operating rates are leading to a decline in enterprise profits. The market is reflecting the end of disturbances from overseas supply, with reduced volatility expected. The demand side is weak, and methanol prices are anticipated to have limited upward potential in the current weak supply-demand environment [3] - Donghai Futures noted that domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals at ports are providing some support for spot prices before maintenance is implemented. However, with international operating rates rebounding significantly and import expectations rising, the supply-demand outlook is deteriorating. Current policy disturbances may lead to slight rebounds, but the potential for significant upward movement is limited, suggesting a focus on short-selling opportunities [3]