铁矿石供需过剩格局不变 后面回落的风险较大

Group 1 - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons, with Australia contributing 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons [1] - The average daily shipment from Brazil was 1.8167 million tons, an increase of 9.77% compared to July of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The current iron ore fundamentals are acceptable, but futures valuations are significantly high, indicating a risk of decline if spot strength does not keep up [2] - Recent iron ore prices have been influenced by market sentiment, with both global shipments and arrivals declining, yet remaining at relatively high levels compared to previous years [3] - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual recovery in supply, relatively low demand, and a shift towards inventory accumulation at ports, maintaining an oversupply situation in the iron ore market [3]