陶冬：“大而美”法案埋下祸根

Group 1 - The tax reform bill is expected to have significant impacts on the U.S. economy, society, and income distribution over the next twenty years, representing Trump's political legacy [1][3] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by a narrow majority in both houses of Congress, making Trump's initial tax cuts permanent and incorporating various election promises [3][4] - The bill is projected to create over $4 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, facing opposition from both Democratic and some Republican lawmakers [3][4] Group 2 - The bill disproportionately benefits the wealthiest, with the top 10% of earners receiving an average tax cut of approximately $389,300 annually, while the lowest 10% lose about $1,000 in benefits [4] - Public opinion is largely against the "Big and Beautiful" bill, with recent polls showing over half of respondents opposed to it, indicating a potential backlash in upcoming midterm elections [4][5] - The upcoming expiration of tariff suspensions and the potential re-imposition of tariffs by Trump on July 9 is a significant market concern, alongside the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes and OPEC+ discussions [5]