大摩揭示澳洲投资机遇：澳元已经见底，聚焦建筑增量板块

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility due to escalating geopolitical concerns and U.S. policy actions, with recent developments including the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs and a trade agreement framework with China [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently rebounded to a record closing high, while the ASX200 index is on track for its best performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Morgan Stanley's macro research head, Chris Nicol, highlighted that global economic growth is expected to slow from approximately 3.5% last year to 2.5% this year, slightly above the global recession threshold [1][2] Group 2: Key Risks - Nicol identified three major market risks to monitor: 1) Trade tensions potentially escalating during tariff negotiations, particularly from a U.S.-EU perspective; 2) Inflation risks as tariff costs may impact the U.S. and other countries; 3) Rising bond yields due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] - The mining and manufacturing sectors in Australia are expected to be significantly affected by the global growth slowdown, with more impact on prices rather than production in mining [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite downward revisions in earnings expectations for resource companies, Nicol anticipates a potential recovery in earnings and emphasizes the importance of domestic policy in stimulating market activity [2][4] - Morgan Stanley suggests constructing an investment portfolio focused on four key areas: selecting large-cap stocks to leverage Australian economic resilience, capturing opportunities in interest rate-sensitive sectors, maintaining quality growth stocks, and holding resource stocks as a hedge against global risks [4] Group 4: Currency Outlook - The Australian dollar has faced pressure during risk asset sell-offs but is expected to stabilize against the U.S. dollar, with a forecasted moderate appreciation to 70 cents by mid-next year [2][4] - The Australian dollar's upward potential against a trade-weighted currency basket is currently limited due to the expected strengthening of the euro and yen against the U.S. dollar [4]