Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to face a decline in the second half of the year due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and a weak local economy, with forecasts suggesting a peak at 62 cents against the US dollar by year-end [1] - Kiwibank predicts that if the RBNZ lowers borrowing costs, the NZD could drop to 60 cents [1] - Despite signs of stabilization in the New Zealand economy, the recovery remains in its early stages, with a persistently weak job market [1] Group 2 - The NZD has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2025, driven by a general weakness in the US dollar, but its performance lags behind most G10 currencies [1] - Brown Brothers Harriman's senior strategist Elias Haddad suggests that if US fiscal concerns worsen and political pressure leads to Federal Reserve rate cuts, the NZD could rise to 64 cents by December [2] - Seasonal trends indicate that the NZD typically enters a weak period in the third quarter, with an average decline of about 2.1% against the US dollar over the past decade [2]
经济疲软风险+降息预期升温 新西兰元下半年涨势恐“后劲不足”
智通财经网·2025-07-07 07:03