一周流动性观察 | 季初效应仍存 税期扰动未至 资金价格有望维持低位运行

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 106.5 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 225 billion yuan due to 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal in the previous week was 1.3753 trillion yuan, with daily net withdrawals exceeding 250 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of the funding environment [1] - Despite the accelerated pace of net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding market is showing a seasonal trend of easing, with overnight and 7-day funding rates hitting new lows for the year [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (July 7-11) will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 652.2 billion yuan, with government bond net payments expected to rise to 251.1 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - The market is anticipated to experience a "stable period" in funding prices, with overnight rates expected to fluctuate around the OMO ±5 basis points range and 7-day funding rates likely to remain below 1.5% [2] - The central bank has not announced any buyout reverse repos or government bond trading operations for June, with 1.2 trillion yuan of buyout reverse repos maturing in July, creating a potential funding gap [3] Group 3 - The market may face a 1.3 trillion yuan medium- to long-term funding gap until the MLF renewal on July 25, making the central bank's decision on whether to conduct buyout reverse repo auctions a key variable for the funding market [3] - The expectation is that the supply of government bonds in July will not significantly increase compared to June, and the central bank's desire to prevent long-term yields from declining unilaterally remains [3] - The central bank's proactive stance on liquidity and the continued decline in money market rates are seen as the most certain factors, with short-term rates potentially having further room to decline [4]