海外库存处于低位 预计锡价震荡偏强运行

Group 1 - The current spot price for 1 tin ingot in Shanghai is reported at 266,800.00 CNY/ton, which is 3,280.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 263,520.00 CNY/ton [1] - On July 7, the futures market closed with the main contract for tin at 263,520.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.03%. The highest price reached was 268,100.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 262,520.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 84,417 lots [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 1,445 tons and a canceled warehouse receipt of 640 tons, with total tin inventory at 2,085 tons, both decreasing by 25 tons [3] Group 2 - The domestic tin supply remains tight due to issues with tin ore transportation from Myanmar, which is affecting imports. The pace of resuming production in Myanmar is slower than expected, and domestic processing fees are at low levels, leading to losses for smelters and further tightening of raw material inventories [5] - Recent data on downstream production schedules has been positive, and progress in tariff negotiations may positively impact exports. Both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a trend of depletion, with overseas stocks at low levels [5] - The tightness in the mining sector is being transmitted to the smelting sector, and it is expected that tin prices will experience strong fluctuations [5]