【新华解读】6月末外储规模环比升近1% 央行连续第八月增持黄金

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves have increased, indicating a strengthened ability to mitigate external shocks and a rational approach to gold accumulation amid high prices [1][3][6]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $331.74 billion, an increase of $32.2 billion from the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth and a total increase of $115.1 billion in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The rise in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar, which fell 2.5% to its lowest point in three years, and the appreciation of non-US currencies, which positively impacted the valuation of reserves [3][4]. - Global financial asset prices have generally risen, with the Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index increasing by 1.0% and the S&P 500 rising by 5.0% in June, further supporting the increase in foreign reserves [4]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of net accumulation [6][7]. - The value of gold reserves increased by $900 million to $242.9 billion, accounting for 7.32% of total foreign exchange reserves, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points [6]. - Despite a recent slowdown in the pace of gold purchases by the central bank, experts believe that increasing gold reserves remains a strategic direction, especially as China's gold holdings are significantly below the global average of around 15% [6][7]. - The global central bank survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a strong preference for gold as a long-term store of value and a means of portfolio diversification [7][8]. Market Outlook - The international gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 25% in the first half of the year, the largest half-year increase since the second half of 2007 [8]. - Although gold prices may face some pressure in the second half of the year due to reduced demand and increased supply, geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing are expected to support a continued upward trend in gold prices [8].