美联储研究报告：中期内基准利率降至零的可能性为9%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's report indicates a 9% probability that the benchmark interest rate could drop to zero within the next seven years due to increased uncertainty in current interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Projections - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve cannot assume that the benchmark loan rate will not reach zero at some point in the future [1] - Current data suggests that future interest rate expectations are higher compared to the past decade, but increased uncertainty poses significant risks of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) in the medium to long term [1] - Historical Context - The risk of reaching the zero lower bound is noted to be similar to levels observed in 2018, indicating a potential return to previous economic conditions [1]