钢铁水泥业盈利缩减“反内卷”需建立长效机制

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].