上市银行密集分红 “抢权”行情会否上演

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in China is experiencing a significant increase in dividend payouts for the 2024 fiscal year, with total dividends reaching a record high of 632 billion yuan, driven by major state-owned banks and a growing preference for high-dividend stocks among investors [2][3]. Group 1: Dividend Announcements - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will distribute a cash dividend of approximately 58.664 billion yuan on July 14, 2024 [1] - China Merchants Bank announced a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share, totaling around 50.44 billion yuan, to be distributed on July 11, 2024 [1] - At least 11 listed banks are set to implement dividend distributions starting in July, with 42 A-share listed banks having their annual profit distribution plans approved by shareholders [1] Group 2: Record Dividend Amounts - The total annual dividend amount for listed banks in 2024 has reached 632 billion yuan, marking the highest in history [2] - The six major state-owned banks are expected to distribute over 215.8 billion yuan in dividends, with total annual payouts exceeding 420 billion yuan when including interim dividends [2] - ICBC's total annual dividend, including interim dividends, amounts to 109.773 billion yuan, while China Construction Bank's total exceeds 100.754 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Dividend Ratios and Frequencies - Fourteen banks have a dividend payout ratio exceeding 30%, with China Merchants Bank having the highest at 33.99% [2] - Nineteen banks have implemented interim dividends, reflecting a positive response from investors and enhancing their sense of returns [2] Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - The banking sector has shown strong market performance, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 18.28% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 17.5 percentage points [3] - The average dividend yield for listed banks is 3.89%, significantly higher than market risk-free rates and fixed deposit rates [3] - The average price-to-book ratio for the banking sector is only 0.74, with a few banks exceeding a ratio of 1 [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term uncertainties in the external environment may enhance the defensive advantages of the banking sector's relative valuation and dividend levels [4] - Long-term prospects for the banking sector remain positive, with expectations of higher return on equity (ROE), earnings growth, and dividend rates compared to the overall market [4] - Investors are advised to purchase shares before the ex-dividend date to qualify for dividends, raising the potential for a "抢权" (rights grabbing) market trend [4]