巴西央行连续六周下调该国2025年通胀预期

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has consecutively lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 for six weeks, now predicting a rate of 5.18%, still above the target range of 3% ± 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 5.20% to 5.18% [1] - Despite the decrease, the inflation expectation remains above the upper limit of the target range, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving inflation control [1] Monetary Policy - In response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank has raised the benchmark interest rate seven times since last year, currently standing at 15.0% [1] - The Central Bank will continue to assess the effects of monetary policy transmission and does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary [1] Economic Growth and Currency Expectations - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up from 2.21% to 2.23% [1] - The exchange rate expectation remains stable, with the market anticipating a USD to Brazilian Real exchange rate of 5.70 by the end of 2025 [1] - The market generally holds a cautiously optimistic view on Brazil's economic growth prospects [1]